U.S. Travel Forecasts $11 Billion Drop in Visitor Spending for 2026

International visitor spending in the United States will fall nearly $11 billion in 2026, according to the U.S. Travel Association's Fall 2026 Forecast, produced with Tourism Economics. The inflation-adjusted decline of 6.3% brings overseas spending down to $163 billion, and the association puts Congress on notice two days after the midterms.

The forecast's headline numbers are blunt. Even a record 2.44 billion domestic trips cannot offset the international slide: total inflation-adjusted travel spending is projected to drop 0.7% to $1.35 trillion in 2026. Travel prices, meanwhile, are forecast to rise 7.2% — more than twice the 3.4% overall inflation rate. International arrivals are not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2030.

How far has the U.S. fallen behind?

The U.S. share of global long-haul arrivals (travelers crossing continents rather than borders) has shrunk from 10.3% in 2019 to a projected 7.7% in 2026, slipping to 7.1% by 2030. Competitors are moving the other direction, and by double digits.

• United States: 79.4M arrivals in 2019 to 67.8M forecast in 2026, down 14.6%
• France: 90.9M to 111.9M, up 23.1%
• Spain: 83.5M to 106.6M, up 27.7%
• Japan: 31.9M to 44.9M, up 40.7%
• World: 1.47B to 1.64B, up 11.7%

France, Spain and Japan post gains while the U.S. contracts. The world grew; America shrank. That gap is the story.

What are the economic stakes?

Travel supports more than 15 million American jobs and generates $92 billion in state and local taxes, according to U.S. Travel's 2025 National Economic Impact data. After a September White House meeting with President Trump, industry leaders proposed a national target of 100 million international visitors annually by 2030. Reaching it could generate $68 billion in additional annual visitor spending and support more than 350,000 additional jobs.

The association notes the projected $11 billion year-over-year decline represents economic activity at risk across visitor-serving businesses, not a modeled jobs or tax-loss estimate. Precision matters when the number is this large.

Gateway markets carry concentrated exposure. In New York City, international visitors accounted for roughly half of tourism spending in 2025; all tourism supported 397,000 jobs and $7.5 billion in tax revenue, per NYC Tourism + Conventions. Miami, Los Angeles, Orlando and San Francisco share the dependence on high-spending overseas guests. Elevated fuel prices add pressure on regional drive markets as more Americans shift toward car travel.

What does Congress need to do?

The association sets a two-track agenda. Before December 11, the current Congress must pass government funding and enact lasting protections so TSA officers and air traffic controllers receive uninterrupted pay during future funding lapses — a hedge against holiday airport disruptions under the next divided government.

In 2027, the mandate broadens: reauthorize Brand USA (the nation's destination-marketing organization) at full funding, expand visa processing, cut unnecessary visa fees and entry barriers, and accelerate investment in air traffic control and airport security modernization.

"The election is over, but the economic stakes are only getting higher," said Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association. "Travel supports American workers and communities. Congress has a December deadline to protect holiday travel and a new year to reverse the loss of international visitors."

He added: "The current Congress must keep America moving this holiday season. The next Congress must help America compete. We have the opportunity to deliver a better travel experience for Americans and bring more international spending and jobs back to our communities. Standing still is not a strategy."

U.S. Travel represents the $1.3 trillion travel industry and advocates for policies to increase travel to and within the United States. Whether Congress treats an $11 billion decline as urgent, or as next year's problem, will shape the 2027 policy fight over Brand USA and visa reform.