UK Restaurant Delivery Sales Rise 2.3% in September Recovery

UK restaurants recorded like-for-like growth of 2.3% on delivery and takeaway sales in September, the strongest month since June, according to the latest NIQ Hospitality at Home Tracker.

The figure follows a difficult summer. Warm weather pushed customers outdoors and suppressed at-home ordering through July and August. September brought a partial reversal, though the growth rate remains modest by historical standards.

On a total basis, the tracker shows a sharper gain. Including restaurants opened in the last 12 months, and sites that added delivery or takeaway for the first time, revenue ran 11.8% ahead of the same month a year earlier. That spread between total and like-for-like figures signals that much of the sector's expansion comes from new outlets and newly switched-on channels rather than deeper demand at existing sites.

Who is in the sample?

The tracker monitors a defined panel of operators: Azzurri Group, Bills, Byron, Mitchells & Butlers, Mowgli, PizzaExpress and Yolk. The results therefore describe large managed groups, not independents or franchised estates.

The pattern is echoed elsewhere. The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reported like-for-like growth of 2.6% for managed restaurants in September, the highest figure in nearly two years. Two trackers, same direction, similar magnitude.

What is driving the split?

Beneath the headline, channels are moving in opposite directions:

• Delivery sales rose 5.8% on a like-for-like basis, powered by third-party platform orders
• Takeaway and click-and-collect revenue fell 6.3% year-on-year, the 18th consecutive monthly decline
• Delivery, takeaway and click-and-collect together accounted for 20.9% of all restaurant spend in September

The divergence matters for unit economics. Third-party delivery carries commission costs that click-and-collect does not, so a basket shifting toward platform orders can lift revenue while compressing contribution margin. The tracker data does not disclose profitability by channel, and that gap is worth noting before reading 5.8% as unalloyed good news.

What did NIQ say?

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at NIQ, struck a measured tone.

"Restaurants won't be getting carried away with like-for-like growth of 2.3% in September, but they will feel relieved about an uptick in demand after a quiet July and August," he said.

He also addressed the central worry for operators investing in at-home channels: cannibalization. "It's also pleasing that at-home sales growth doesn't appear to be coming at the expense of eat-in trade," Chessell said.

His optimism carried conditions. He flagged intense competition and rising costs that will make profits "hard-earned" in the final quarter, even if consumer spending loosens.

What comes next?

The data raises the possibility of a stronger Christmas run-in for delivery, with roughly a fifth of restaurant spend already flowing through at-home channels. But the caveat is structural: 2.3% like-for-like growth barely outpaces inflation, takeaway has declined for a year and a half straight, and no figure in the release speaks to margin. Operators will take the relief, and keep watching costs.