Two-thirds of U.S. restaurant guests are spending less on dining out than they did a year ago, posting an average weekly tab of $100 — roughly $15 below June 2025 levels — according to a new Popmenu consumer trends study that tracked 3,000 U.S. consumers across three survey waves in February, May and July 2026.

The data lands as operators face what Popmenu CEO Brendan Sweeney frames as a structural reset. "Around 30% of monthly food budgets go to restaurants today, down from a high of 40% in 2022," Sweeney said. "What that tells us is consumers are spending intentionally, not reluctantly. Restaurants have pushed menu prices about as far as they can go."

Where are guests cutting back?

Sixty percent of consumers say they are dining out less frequently. Dinner is absorbing the largest share of those cuts at 46%, followed by lunch (37%), breakfast (28%) and late-night (24%). Guests are not abandoning restaurants. They are engineering around them.

The tactics tied to those cuts read like a margin study:

• 52% choose water over a purchased beverage
• 50% shift to pickup over delivery
• 48% deploy coupons or rewards points
• 47% choose less expensive restaurants
• 29% order an appetizer in place of an entrée
• 28% cut alcohol purchases
• 16% order kids' meals for adults

For operators, those substitutions compress check average in ways comp-sales metrics rarely capture cleanly. A kids' meal pulling a full entrée seat is the kind of trade-down that does not register in traffic counts.

Where is the trade-down flowing?

Consumers named quick service (McDonald's), fast casual (Panera) and casual-dining (Chili's) as the channels gaining visits. For operators who have spent three years protecting check average through list price, that migration raises a near-term question: does the next four quarters reward lower ticket with higher turn, or does it produce a margin squeeze from labor and product cost that no longer self-corrects through price?

How has tipping changed, and by format?

Forty percent of guests are tipping less this year, and within that group, 78% are pulling back at restaurants and bars. Average tipping behavior looks very different across format:

• Sit-down with server: 38% tip 20%, 26% tip 15%, 6% tip 25%+, 17% tip 10%, 7% tip under 10%
• Carryout counters: 25% tip under 10%, 20% tip 10%, just 7% reach 20%
• Coffee shops: 23% tip under 10%, 19% tip 10%, 8% reach 20%
• QSR/fast food: 21% tip under 10%, only 3% reach 20%
• Fast casual: 19% tip under 10%, 6% reach 20%

For full-service operators running tip-credit payroll, 20% remains the modal outcome at 38% — a thinner band of upside than pre-pandemic benchmarks.

What do guests reward?

Three decision drivers surfaced in the data: visibility, affordability and ease of doing business.

• 80% use Google and search engines to find restaurants; 27% use AI tools such as ChatGPT, putting answer-engine optimization on equal footing with SEO in the marketing budget
• 80% are more likely to choose a menu with photos, video and reviews
• 94% prefer ordering directly from a restaurant's own site over a third-party platform
• 62% want affordable meal options; 58% will spend more when a discount is present
• 46% are more likely to choose restaurants with loyalty programs; 70% will join a mailing list, and 79% will download an app

The 9-point gap between mailing-list signups and app downloads points to friction still inside app enrollment funnels.

Where does AI meet an exhausted front of house?

Sixty percent of consumers say they are comfortable with restaurants using AI to deliver faster service — answering phones, taking orders, and preparing or serving food. For operators juggling staffing in a tight labor market, that acceptance sets the precondition for capital investment in AI phone and ordering tools.

What Sweeney called the "intentional" guest now reads as the baseline operator's challenge: hold the math on labor and product cost while serving a diner whose restaurant share of the food budget has dropped 10 percentage points since 2022.

The next Popmenu survey wave lands before Q4 catering decisions close. Whether that $100 weekly average holds through the holidays will tell operators whether the cycle has bottomed or simply paused.