Sixteen restaurants closed around Moscow's Patriarch Ponds by the end of 2025 — five times the closure rate of previous years — as Russia's dining sector enters its first sustained contraction since the 2022 downturn.

Nationwide, the bar count fell 6% by August, and Moscow lost 14% of its bars versus August 2025, Vedomosti reports. Alcohol sales at restaurants dropped more than 40% on average in the first half of 2026, and wine sales fell 45%, to 361,000 decaliters, according to Kommersant. Mapping service 2GIS counted 5% fewer restaurants and 6% fewer cafés (down to 12,500) in million-plus cities by spring 2026.

Alexey (name changed), owner of several Moscow restaurants and gastro-bars, quantified the damage at his own units: a 20% decline in foot traffic and a 20% drop in average check. "Starting in the second half of 2025, revenues began to decline, and that trend continues to this day," he said.

Where is the squeeze coming from?

Import substitution, not demand alone, is driving menu inflation. Wine restaurateur Sergei traces the cost base to 2014, when counter-sanctions cut off U.S. marbled beef and European dairy. Russian cheeses now match or exceed European prices. Parmigiano Reggiano and Grana Padano — essential for pasta programs — have risen 30–40%, compounded by ruble weakness.

A bottle of Trapiche Malbec that retailed for 690 rubles in 2022 now costs 1,490 rubles. A pre-war Petrus at roughly 400,000 rubles now runs 1.8 million rubles in Russia and has disappeared from restaurant lists. Sixteen-year-old Lagavulin, once purchased wholesale at 2,600 rubles, now costs about 16,000 wholesale — so 50-gram pours in pubs price like full bottles did 12 years ago.

Government policy amplifies the squeeze: excise duties on alcohol from "unfriendly countries" rise regularly, and in 2025 import duties on wine and beer exceeded the product's cost. Sommelier Tatyana describes the supply-chain workaround: French goods now route through third countries instead of the Baltic states, pushing wine imports up from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, Turkey and Uzbekistan.

How are operators engineering menus?

Restaurateur Platon reports ingredient costs up 15–20% over the past year, but disciplined repricing: menu increases once every four to six months, tied to menu updates, to hold food cost at an acceptable level. He refuses 20% jumps.

Shot-bar chains show the sharpest menu engineering. Bartender Konstantin says Kahlúa tripled in price, forcing reformulation of the White Russian, and operators added deliberately cheap items like lavash chips to protect margins. The format survives on domestic vodka, infused spirits and beer — immune to import shocks — and keeps expanding near student areas.

What is happening to labor costs?

Record-low unemployment has bid up wages for cooks, bartenders, baristas and couriers. Operators respond with off-the-books pay — Svetlana says many Moscow restaurants now pay staff under the table — and by cutting ancillary roles. At her workplace, managers fired one of three kitchen staff and split his duties between the remaining two without a proportional raise.

At Vkusno i Tochka, the chain occupying former McDonald's locations, signage at the Tverskaya site promises 142,000 rubles a month for full shifts. Sergei complains Gen Z staff demand 200,000-ruble salaries for two-on, two-off schedules and quit mid-shift, costing operators revenue on peak days.

Who survives the shakeout?

Every source agrees the mid-priced segment is collapsing while both ends hold. "Establishments at the low and high ends of the market are doing well, while the mid-range restaurant market is shrinking," Alexey said. Tatyana sees growth in fast food, coffee shops, street food, pan-Asian concepts and shawarma joints.

The forward risk is fiscal. A promised VAT introduction in December could push more operators to close, Alexey said: "If the promised VAT is finally introduced in December, we'll consider every option, including closing down." Tatyana expects the average restaurant's life cycle to keep shortening — currently three to five years — with low-rent street food, food halls and food courts the most durable formats.