Hotel transaction volume rose 14% in the first half of 2026, with nearly 1,000 properties changing hands as narrowing bid-ask gaps brought more deals to closing, according to HVS's September U.S. Market Pulse report.

Citing MCSI Real Capital Analytics, HVS put the average capitalization rate at 8.2% for H1 2026 on deals where one was reported, with an average price per key of $137,000—roughly flat against the first six months of 2025. Quarter-to-date activity through mid-September traded at a slightly higher 8.4% cap rate, with a $142,000 average price per key. Deal volume is shaping up well for Q3, the consultancy added.

Where RevPAR stands now

Operating fundamentals have done the heavy lifting. Revenue per available room grew just over 10% in the first half of September even as year-over-year comparisons absorbed a calendar shift tied to the Labor Day holiday. HVS projects a "relatively healthy" fall season, with corporate transient and group indicators running favorably from October through Thanksgiving. December should land as a steady-demand month.

Average daily rate has been the standout metric. A strong stock market and a tilt toward luxury and upper-upscale bookings lifted ADR "well beyond initial expectations," HVS said. The firm expects a "slight moderation" in ADR growth next year once the World Cup demand lift disappears, though occupancy and RevPAR should stay healthy.

What is driving summer and fall demand?

Two engines: staycations and youth sports. Parents keep prioritizing team-sports spending despite broader inflationary pressure, according to the Sports & Fitness Industry Association. Most general managers HVS interviewed flagged youth bookings as an "important contributor" to summer RevPAR gains across U.S. lodging markets.

Collegiate sports now pick up the baton as the fall semester ramps, the firm projects. Vacation budgets that might have flowed internationally are landing at U.S. upper-upscale and luxury resorts instead, offsetting softer inbound traffic from Canada and reinforcing the domestic leisure trends HVS flagged earlier this year.

How are operators stretching line-level labor?

Two levers, deployed in tandem. Properties are converting more part-time line roles into full-time positions with benefits, lifting fixed labor costs. To offset, managers push variable work through third-party staffing firms whose recruiting and retention muscle exceeds what a single hotel can deploy. Contract labor lets properties scale hours up or down with occupancy and group pickup, the report notes—a model with direct margin implications for owners watching wage pressure in housekeeping, food-and-beverage and stewarding.

What does automation look like on-property?

HVS inspected one full-service property this month and found commercial robotic vacuums handling guestroom hallways, the lobby, food-and-beverage outlets and meeting room foyers, primarily overnight. The units required upfront purchase and programming. With public-area attendant hiring described as "virtually impossible," operators treated the deployment as a necessary spend and reported satisfaction with the result, suggesting a template other full-service operators may follow.

What financing dynamics are shaping the second half?

Trailing-twelve-month operating statements are landing healthier on the back of summer RevPAR gains, and that improvement is sparking refinancing activity, HVS said. Despite recent Federal Reserve interest rate movement, the firm characterized buyers and sellers as "increasingly realistic" about current financing conditions and signaled those dynamics will persist "for a while."

HVS principals frame 2026 as a setup year for transaction volume, with the consultancy expecting another strong year in 2027 as the fall travel picture firms up and refinancing discussions translate into closings.