Dutch Bros stock falls 17% as sales outlook tightens

By Elena Vasquez

Dutch Bros shares fell 17% in off-hours trading Wednesday after the drive-thru beverage chain posted third-quarter same-store sales of 5.4%, below expectations, and lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook.

The 5.4% increase included 0.4% traffic growth and extended Dutch Bros’ run of positive customer counts to a ninth consecutive quarter. Positive comparisons alone did not reassure investors because the result fell short of expectations and the company reduced its outlook.

CEO Christine Barone said: “We did see a heightened level of choppiness in Q3. As we look at some of that choppiness in Q3, it could be attributed somewhat to gas prices. We didn’t see anything on the competitive front.” Barone attributed some customer volatility to rising gas prices rather than a competitive decline.

Technomic’s Top 500 review found that chain restaurant sales slowed again in 2025 as consumers cut back on dining, while coffee, beverages and snacks, and chicken thrived. Dutch Bros sits in those stronger categories, but its 0.4% traffic gain did not prevent investors from focusing on lower guidance and competitive concerns.

Why did the stock fall?

Management cut full-year adjusted EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—to $380 million from a $385 million-to-$390 million range. It also appeared to tighten two other forecasts:

• Same-store sales to “at least” 5%, from a range of 5% to 6%.
• Revenue to “at least” $2.1 billion, from a range of $2.1 billion to $2.13 billion.

Barone framed the revisions as caution about an uncertain consumer environment and the company’s ability to perform for the rest of the quarter. The lower sales and earnings targets outweighed the positive customer-count comparison.

Is competition taking sales?

Investors pointed to McDonald’s beverage introductions, including an apparently successful energy-beverage offering last quarter, and the rapid market expansion of drive-thru competitor 7 Brew. Dutch Bros ranks third among U.S. coffee chains, while 7 Brew ranks fourth.

Barone said Dutch Bros has faced competition since 1992 and that the chain encounters competitors in every market it enters. The two companies each operate more than 20 shops in four states. After Dutch Bros examined stores within a one-mile radius of rivals, Barone said: “It actually makes no difference on our AUV. So we feel incredibly comfortable going into any different competitive situation.”

Investors appeared unconvinced. Positive customer counts did not prevent the same-store result from missing expectations, and Barone’s assertion left the competitive question unresolved. The company’s AUV finding supports its position that overlap has not reduced volumes at the stores it examined, but it does not address the broader risk posed by new beverage offerings and 7 Brew’s continued expansion.

What does the expansion plan change for Dutch Bros?

Dutch Bros ended the third quarter with 1,273 shops. The company expects to finish the year with 185 total shop openings and plans 250 openings next year.

What does this change for Dutch Bros? The chain will accelerate physical growth while carrying lower sales and earnings expectations. The practical issue is whether new locations can generate enough traffic and revenue to offset weaker same-store performance and a reduced $380 million adjusted EBITDA target.

The next results will test whether traffic strengthens beyond 0.4%, same-store sales reach at least 5%, and the 250-opening plan proceeds without another reduction to the outlook.