Chili's Posts 10.1% Comp Growth, No Trick Beyond Fundamentals

Chili's same-store sales rose 10.1% in Q1 at company-operated units, its 22nd consecutive quarter of comp growth and the third straight year of double-digit gains. The two-year stack sits at 31.5%; the three-year view near 52%. Traffic contributed 6.4% and now accounts for two-thirds of the comp, up 19.5% over two calendar years and 28% over three.

CEO Kevin Hochman told analysts Wednesday: "Our Q1 result, putting three consecutive years of double-digit comp growth driven by traffic gains, provides ample support that our strategy is sustainable even with a difficult macro." Average unit volumes have climbed from $3 million to $5 million since the turnaround began, and the brand's Google rating hit an all-time high of 4.3 in the quarter.

Chili's has beaten the casual-dining category, per Black Box data, for 12 straight periods — by 750 basis points this quarter. Q2 is running at a mid-single-digit comp rate against a year-ago lap of 8.6%, which itself built on a 31.4% result.

What is driving the growth?

Hochman's explanation is deliberately unglamorous. "I wish it was more of a Merlin act," he said. "It's really just about the fundamentals of casual dining — delivering great everyday value for our guests and then executing like crazy."

The brand has renovated 60% of the menu and spent north of $100 million on facility improvements during the surge. At investor day, management shared token data showing 3 million to 3.5 million new guest tokens arriving, tracked monthly by cohort to measure repeat frequency. Q1 repeat figures are not yet available, but Hochman said current guest metrics show no taper.

The Big Crispy Chicken sandwich, launched in April at $10.99, anchored incremental traffic. The chain sells about 55 per day, up from roughly 20 before, and category orders climbed 175% across six variations. "Marketing brings them in and then ops brings them back," Hochman said.

Menu upgrades completed in Q1 include Blue Bell ice cream, sausage added to pasta, the return of cheesecake, and a rethought Kids Pepper Pals menu with ice cream floats, Shirley Temples, grilled chicken bites, cheese quesadillas and a Mini Molten.

How does Chili's handle the volume?

Throughput is the new battleground. Q1 marked the first period without GWAP (a complaint-frequency metric) in GM bonuses — as planned, Hochman said, with no slowdown in experience scores.

Host-stand work led the quarter:

• Talent standards reset; some units now run three or four dedicated hosts, versus none five years ago
• "Aces in Places" role definitions: meter, seater, greeter
• Managers on the floor when large parties arrive
• iPad host-stand retraining to eliminate "false waits" (quoted waits that mask operational backups)

"We want zero false waits in our restaurants," Hochman said. A new team-member handheld, live by calendar year-end, eliminates more than half the tasks required to take a table's order. Host-stand progress should be tangible by November or December, with unannounced to-go initiatives also in the pipeline.

A "Staff to Grow Your Business" program applies North of 6 best practices — drawn from operators with $6 million-plus AUVs — to scheduling, including retraining above-restaurant leaders on writing labor schedules.

What about pricing and the consumer?

Mix was flat in the quarter against 3.7% price, slippage management attributes to discretionary pressure. The $10.99 tier of 3 For Me mixes at its usual 20–21%; mix dipped slightly negative in October, but CFO Mika Ware said traffic "has more than made up for that." Guests are doing some check management in alcohol and desserts, he noted, while still choosing Chili's as the affordable option.

Hochman argued the dynamic favors scale: "The stronger are going to get stronger. And the weaker are going to get weaker."

What does development look like?

A reimage program has completed 20 locations with 13 under construction and 60–80 slated for fiscal 2027, moving to 10% annually thereafter. Ware pegged each remodel at $500,000–$600,000 with a 3–5% sales lift; about 20% of sites will require the higher end.

Brinker targets 2–3% annual unit growth by fiscal 2029, backed by more than 300 identified trade areas: underpenetrated Washington and the Pacific Northwest, infill in Texas and Florida, and secondary markets like the Carolinas under a small-town strategy. Q1 saw one domestic opening plus nine international, bringing the system to 1,630 locations including 51 Maggiano's. Fiscal 2027 calls for five to six U.S. openings and 25–30 international — modest, Ware said, with "ample sites" already secured for the acceleration beyond.