76% of Europeans Plan Autumn-Winter Trips as Budgets Rise

Three quarters of Europeans — 76% — intend to take an overnight trip between October 2026 and March 2027, a 3-point increase over the same period last year, according to the European Travel Commission's latest "Monitoring Sentiment for Intra-European Travel" report (Wave 26). Planned budgets are moving up in parallel: 49% of travellers now allocate €1,000–€2,500 per person per trip.

Poland leads national travel intention at 87%, up 5% year-on-year. Spain follows at 82%, with Germany and the Netherlands each at 79%. Travellers aged 35–44 show the strongest appetite at 79%, ahead of both the 45–54 and 55+ cohorts at 76%. The 18–24 group recorded the largest jump in intention, surging 10%.

Where and when will Europeans travel?

Southern Europe remains the dominant destination region at 53%. Western Europe ranks second at 23% and is the only major region gaining ground, up 5%.

The calendar is uneven. Intentions for October–November sit 11% below last year, but interest in February–March 2027 travel is up 8%, and March specifically gains 6%. December is the single most popular month, at 23% of travellers, driven by Christmas: visiting friends and family motivates 32% of December trips versus 18% overall.

Trip frequency is also climbing. Some 56% of planners now intend two or more trips by March, while the share planning just one trip fell 7%.

What does the report change for destination marketing?

Lesser-known destinations are closing the gap with established ones. While 47% of travellers still favour well-known attractions, 44% now prefer less-touristed locations — up 4% year-on-year — and another 10% seek remote or off-the-beaten-track spots. Safety ranks as the top selection criterion (20%), ahead of stable seasonal weather (15%) and attractive deals (14%).

City breaks (19%) and culture and heritage trips (18%) top the trip-type ranking, with sun-and-beach winter holidays close behind at 18%. Trip lengths hold steady: 43% plan four to six nights, and 32% plan seven to twelve. The ETC reads the slightly higher budgets against stable durations as an allowance for rising costs rather than longer holidays — and 55% of travellers have yet to book, leaving final spending sensitive to price pressure.

AI moves into the booking funnel

Digital tools now anchor trip planning. Search engines (59%) and travel websites (57%) remain the most used, but AI platforms have reached 40% of all planners across inspiration, planning or booking. Adoption splits sharply by age: 56% of travellers aged 18–34 used generative AI or AI trip-planning platforms, against just 26% of those over 55.

Financial pressure is the leading travel concern at 37%, followed by geopolitical instability at 23%.

ETC Chief Executive Eduardo Santander said the findings "underline the ambition of the Commission's new Sustainable Tourism Strategy" and called the February–March uptick and the shift toward off-the-beaten-track destinations trends that "could be leveraged to reduce tourism congestion and create new opportunities for local businesses." He added that concerns around cost and safety highlight "the importance of offering reliable experiences and services for all budgets."

The report, co-funded by the European Union, signals a shoulder-season opportunity: operators and destinations that price and market for early 2027 stand to capture a growing off-peak share.