War Insurance for Gulf Events Is 'Close to Unobtainable' as Premiums Jump 20-Fold

War and political violence insurance for events in the Gulf has largely disappeared since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February, with premiums rising at least 20-fold and market capacity shrinking from roughly $1 billion to about $200 million, according to insurance broker Marsh.

Only one insurer — possibly two, on very limited terms — is currently willing to consider war exposure for events in the region, said Panteha Peters, head of sports, entertainment, media and special risks at Marsh Middle East and Africa. That insurer works case by case and generally quotes no earlier than about one week before the event.

The squeeze does not affect standard event-cancellation cover across the board. Organizers can still insure against cancellation for causes such as bad weather, a declared period of national mourning, or an IT failure. But standard policies exclude war and political violence, and that protection normally must be bought as a separate layer. Since late February, that layer has become very hard to find for Gulf events.

Pricing for the standard cancellation product has generally held stable this year, according to Yasmin Dacuycuy of Gallagher. The pressure is concentrated in the war layer — the piece organizers now cannot reliably buy.

What does this change for Gulf organizers?

The practical answer: events either slip off the calendar or proceed uninsured. Industry executives told Skift that organizers are postponing events or absorbing the war risk themselves. Events that go ahead are doing so with lower limits, more exclusions, and in some cases no cancellation insurance at all.

Saudi Arabia is the sharpest pressure point. Morningstar DBRS found brokers reported rates rising as much as 50-fold immediately after the first attacks on Iran. Marcos Alvarez of Morningstar DBRS said the Houthi missile and drone campaign targeting Riyadh, Abha, and Dammam in October turned war from a theoretical policy exclusion into a live, priced peril.

The casualty list on Saudi Arabia's calendar is long. The following events have been canceled, postponed, or relocated:

• Future Investment Initiative conference
• EU-Gulf summit
• Intersec Saudi Arabia 2026
• Saudi Retail Forum
• 2027 Dakar Rally
• Saudi International golf tournament
• Red Sea Film Festival
• Riyadh Fashion Week

Why capacity collapsed

The mathematics of the market explain the speed of the pullback. Marsh reported in May that political violence premiums in the Gulf had risen at least 20-fold since the war began, while total capacity to write that cover fell from about $1 billion to roughly $200 million. An 80% contraction in available limits, paired with rate increases of that magnitude, effectively prices most regional events out of the war layer entirely.

The one remaining willing insurer's constraint compounds the problem for planners. Quotes issued no earlier than about a week before an event leave organizers almost no window to budget, negotiate, or restructure. Large conferences and festivals are typically locked into venues, talent, and supplier contracts months in advance — a timeline incompatible with seven-day underwriting.

For operators and event-dependent hospitality businesses across the Gulf, the gap between stable standard cancellation pricing and unobtainable war cover is now the binding constraint. So long as the conflict continues, expect Saudi Arabia's events calendar to keep shortening, with organizers either self-insuring the war risk or postponing until capacity returns.