Hotels are filling an increasing share of rooms within 14 days of arrival, and that shift is breaking the forecasting models revenue managers built on year-over-year pace and pickup. Jon Siberry, revenue consultant for Z Hotels and Sarova Hotels, argues that flash sales on platforms like Secret Escapes and Travelzoo can generate bookings that would not otherwise exist — but only if operators control commission, audience fit and rate integrity.

"There is no pattern that you can rely on now," Siberry said on the Hoteliers' Voice podcast. Looking back at demographics and traveller behaviour over the last 6-12 months, he sees no clear trends. "The hotel marketplace is changing rapidly, all the time. All trends are very 'untrendy'; they're all out the window. Every day is different."

Late bookings change the commercial calculus

A thin-looking calendar weeks before arrival forces a choice: hold rate and wait, or discount and hope. Neither is automatically right. A hotel can look worryingly empty, then see bookings flood in at the last minute — a pattern Siberry describes with a line from Field of Dreams: "If you build it, they will come."

But, as he acknowledges, nerves of steel is not much of a commercial strategy. Hotels cannot count on last-minute pickup arriving reliably month after month. The practical answer is a portfolio of responses: hold rate, adjust pricing, or actively create demand through controlled inventory releases on flash-sale channels.

Impulse demand versus cannibalised demand

The distinction that matters to Siberry is between discounting a booking the hotel would have captured anyway and creating a booking that would never have happened. The customers he sees through Secret Escapes and Travelzoo largely fall into the second category.

"Most of these customers are people who are not necessarily planning to travel," he said. "This is why we call them impulse sales. The email arrives in their inbox, and they look at it and think: 'this is a great deal, I'd be stupid not to take it.'"

He reserves flash sales primarily for low-demand dates — winter and off-season periods — and caps exposure by releasing a tightly controlled allocation. Sometimes that means just a couple of rooms. "Once it's gone, it's gone."

Commission first, rate integrity always

Siberry's first question when evaluating any new channel is blunt: "What's the cost going to be to me? What's the margin of commission the channel wants? If they get the answer wrong, that's the end of the conversation."

Commission sits at the top of the list because hotel margins are already under pressure. But it is not the only filter. He screens channels on audience, distribution network, connectivity and rate integrity — the last of which he calls a "big, big issue." Affiliates that shave a flash-sale price by a couple of pounds and push it into the market cheaper destroy price positioning, make the hotel look inconsistent, and invite OTAs to match or undercut the rate.

Audience separation is equally deliberate. Siberry has worked with Travelzoo and Secret Escapes for years precisely because each reaches customers the hotels do not already capture. "We're tapping into two separate markets; it's not the same customers on these two different platforms," he said.

The wrong channel can also bring the wrong kind of demand. For hotels with strong positioning or a premium guest experience, filling a room with a poorly matched guest can damage guest experience and reviews — a knock-on cost that sits outside the commission line.

A toolbox, not a silver bullet

The broader lesson Siberry draws is about method, not channels. When demand arrives late and consumer behaviour shifts, a slashed rate is not always the answer. Sometimes the right move is holding rate and trusting late pickup. Sometimes the numbers justify repricing. And sometimes the operator should manufacture demand by placing a limited allocation in front of a new audience.

His own approach is to keep testing new channels while applying the same three tests — cost, customer fit and rate integrity — to every one. The goal is not to find one perfect way to fill a hotel, but to build a set of options that work when the market refuses to behave predictably.