Roughly $48 billion in CMBS-era hotel loans will mature across 2025–2026, often refinancing at debt service about 40% higher than the original loan. That figure anchors a new five-page report from Access Point Financial, an Atlanta-based direct hospitality lender founded in 2011, titled "I Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday for a Hamburger Today: The State of Hotel Construction Loans."

The report traces hotel construction lending from the start of the 2000s, decade by decade, before turning to current market conditions and forecasts. Its central argument: rising costs, expensive debt and compressed margins have redirected capital away from new construction and toward renovation, conversion and acquisition.

"With continual market fluctuations, economic uncertainties and rising costs, we wanted to provide hotel owners and developers with truly useful information to make future growth plans," said Dana Tsakanikas, chief investment officer at APF. "Hotel development remains sluggish nationwide, but we are seeing meaningful exceptions in certain segments and locations."

What is driving the shift away from new builds?

The Turner Building Cost Index, which tracks U.S. non-residential construction costs, surged 8.0% in 2022 and another 6.0% in 2023, after averaging just 1.9% growth across 2020–2021. The index reached 1552 in the second quarter of 2026, up 5.15% year-over-year.

Debt is the second pressure. As of July 2026, 10-year fixed CMBS rates for hotels run 5.85%–6.85%, wider than multifamily or industrial at 5.50%–6.30%. Construction and bridge financing for hotels runs materially higher still, roughly 8% to 10%-plus depending on structure and leverage.

Margins compound the problem. Even where ADR and RevPAR look healthy, gross operating profit per room remains near 90% of 2019 levels, leaving a thin cushion to absorb higher construction and debt costs. The report is careful on causation: it frames the slowdown as a stack of cost of capital, tighter lender selectivity and margin compression, with construction inflation as one input among several rather than the single cause.

Where is development still happening?

U.S. hotel supply growth fell from a pre-pandemic year-over-year average of 1.3% to just 0.5% as of early 2025, with rooms under construction still below pre-COVID levels. Yet pockets of activity persist.

• Renovations and conversions. Developers have shifted toward "flips and PIPs" — brand conversions and renovations that deliver a like-like product while bypassing construction loan costs required for new builds.
• Extended stay. Owners favor the segment for its lower operational overhead and resilient customer demand.
• Luxury pipeline. As of the close of the 2026 first quarter, 59 luxury hotels were under construction, reflecting record early-stage pipeline activity responding to undersupply.

The cost gap between building new hotels and acquiring existing ones has also fueled a wave of M&A, with hotel companies expanding through acquisitions and partnerships rather than construction. That activity remains an exercise in "testing the market," according to the report, because a material gap still exists between seller and buyer price expectations.

Is lending recovering?

The maturity wall complicates any recovery. With $48 billion in hotel CMBS debt maturing in 2025–2026 and refinancing costs running ~40% higher, lender and sponsor attention and capital are flowing toward rescuing existing assets rather than funding new construction.

Still, origination volume is moving. Hotel loan dollar volume rose 85% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 and a further 19% year-over-year in the second quarter.

"Based on the success rate of our existing client activity of late, we remain bullish on the 'Build, Baby, Build' strategy," Tsakanikas said. "With historic product undersupply, our owners and developers are realizing a distinct market advantage bringing new hotels into areas with otherwise aging and outdated competition."

That optimism deserves scrutiny. The report's own data shows new construction constrained on nearly every front — cost inflation, debt pricing, maturing loans and margins still below 2019. The bullish case rests on undersupply holding long enough for developers who can still finance ground-up projects to reach opening before competitors renovate their way to parity. The full report is available through APF's website.